Fastest Growing Market: 5 Inch Travel Bikes

Jeremy McKinley at Gregg’s Cycles in WA and I got to talking about market trends during a 140 characters or less Twitter session (@mtbby198 and @greggscycles). I made the statement that the 5 inch travel bike market (including everything in the 130-140mm rear travel range) was the fastest growing segment in the mountain biking industry. 

How can I make this claim?

Let’s break it down…Unfortunately, market trending research data is unreliable at best. The data is collected through a number of sources, but in the end…statistics are just that…statistics. In all of the industries that I have had a direct involvement with…we always base market trends on several major factors that can determine where the industry is headed from a growth perspective.

The most important factor in watching and predicting market trends…follow the money. Money is the key driver for start up costs, advertising and overall investment into a product line. Manufacturers, especially now, are watching their bottom lines very closely and there is not one penny left unturned. Each dollar that is invested in new product, advertising or releasing new technologies is carefully planned to create the greatest amount of return.

Startup costs for new product releases is one of the strongest indicators or market trending. The higher this dollar amount becomes, the less likely a manufacturer is willing to enter…simple barriers of entry analysis. In the mountain biking industry, suspension fork manufacturers have the highest up front cost due to the expensive molds required to manufacture fork lowers. If you will notice over time, the suspension fork is typically the last item on your build list for the lastest and greatest of that year. To add to the high cost of manufacturing setup, suspension has to be tested thoroughly before release (another high cost item). 

How does this relate to market trending?

Fox Talas Suspension fork manufacturers are only going to invest in technologies and products that they are sure will create a large return on their initial investment. In today’s mountain bike market, the 120-140mm fork line is the fastest growing segment. A quick look at the new product offerings from Fox Racing, SRAM (Rock Shox) and Manitou will confirm this fact (Talas, Revelation, Pike, etc.). The latest designs, technologies and new product releases are coming directly from this travel market. As an added bonus, by tracking suspension fork manufacturers, you are also tracking the trends of the full suspension mountain biking frames due to balanced suspension needs. If you are tracking the frames, you are tracking the parts. The suspension fork manufacturers are an incredible litmus test of the mountain biking market and where it is heading.

To test this theory, think of the 29er movement as it came into the market place. As soon as the 29er wheel size was the hottest, have-to-have item on the market, dozens of custom frame manufacturers were whipping up 29er rigid bikes as fast as they could make them. Custom bike manufacturers have the lowest barriers of entry into new markets so you will typically see them jump on board first. The last manufacturers to drink the Kool-Aid were tires and forks because of their large upfront costs. Even now…it may seem like they are not even completely on board with the 29er market.

What about advertising?

Watching advertising dollars is another key aspect to watching the market trends in mountain biking, but you have to watch out for some gray area. Typically, manufacturers push their highest competing product in the fastest growing market, or one they need to sell higher quantities on to create a larger return. As you look through your next issue of MBA or Bike…what travel bikes are you seeing in dual page layouts? Probably bikes around the 5 inch travel category.

Starting to make sense? Well now that it does…take it with a grain of salt. Market trending is never perfect and there is one aspect that will completely blow it out of the water…every time. Location is the largest factor in determining what will sell in your area. While the 5 inch travel bike market is the fastest growing segment of mountain biking. Are you going to sell nothing but 5 inch travel bikes at the Whistler Bike Park? Is every cross country racer going to want a new 30 lbs 5 inch quiver? Probably not…

The 5 inch travel bike

Trek Fuel EXAnother major selling point of a 5 – 5.5 inch travel bike frame is it’s ability to do a lot of things well. The typical mountain biker is not going to have a garage full of rides to pick from when he hits that next sweet section of single track. Built up around 27 lbs on average, the 5 inch travel frame is a great all around ride. I am starting to see 6″ travel frames try to step into this market as the next “must have”, but…in my opinion…a 6″ travel bike under 30 lbs is not going to descend like a 6″ bike and it won’t climb like a 5″. For right now, the industry has found a great balance at 5″ of rear travel that makes most of the buying public happy to get out for a ride.

Reality is…most recreational, non-racing mountain bikers need a bike that will carry them around their local trails and weekend adventures into higher altitudes. The 140mm bike is a perfect match as a do-it-all ride for this rider. As much as we all like to stare at super light xc parts or extremely heavy dh rigs…that is not the majority of today’s retail bike market.

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